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Page 13 of 20
ENVIRONMENT
- A December 2005 report by International Climate Conference indicated $200 billion in weather-related losses that year, breaking the previous 2004 record of $145 billion. (Munich Re Foundation, International Climate Conference, December, 2005; The Business Case for Climate Protection by Hunter Lovins, Natural Capital Solutions)
- According to existing models, the economic and social consequences of global temperature changes resulting from Business As Usual (BAU) trends --where emissions may exceed 2-3 degrees centigrade by the end of this century with 5-6 degrees centigrade being a real possibility for the next century—could mean an average 5-10% loss in global GDP. However, if recent scientific evidence which seems to indicate the climate system may be more responsive to greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought, the total cost of BAU could equate to around a 20% permanent reduction in consumption. (The Stern Review)
- World GHG emissions could be halved by 2050 at a cost of just 1% of global gross domestic product (GDP). (The German Environment Agency, The Business Case for Climate Protection by Hunter Lovins, Natural Capital Solutions)
- The latest figures show, however, that over the past seven years CO2 concentrations have grown 35 per cent faster, partly because the ability of the Southern Ocean and other carbon "sinks" such as vegetation and forests to take it up has been reduced. The decline in global sink efficiency suggests that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 is even more difficult to achieve than previously thought.
- The latest figures show, however, that over the past seven years CO2 concentrations have grown 35 per cent faster, partly because the ability of the Southern Ocean and other carbon "sinks" such as vegetation and forests to take it up has been reduced. The decline in global sink efficiency suggests that stabilization of atmospheric CO2 is even more difficult to achieve than previously thought. (Global Warming is Happening Faster, The Telegraph UK October 23, 2007)
- Over the past ten years, the size of acreage consumed by fire has grown exponentially and can now consume from 200 to 500,000 acres or more. . (Expert: Warming Climate Fuels Mega-Fires, CBS News, October 21, 2007)
- Seven of the 10 busiest fire seasons have been since 1999. . (Expert: Warming Climate Fuels Mega-Fires, CBS News, October 21, 2007)
- Seasoned firefighters, with over 30 years of experience, say that climate change has a lot to do with the fires they are fighting in the Southwest, because temperature, humidity and drought are different that anything they have seen in their lifetimes. . (Expert: Warming Climate Fuels Mega-Fires, CBS News, October 21, 2007)
- According to the latest UN Report on Climate Change, all of the most recent findings have underscored that the human population is living far beyond its means and inflicting damage to the environment that could pass points of no return. (UN Issues “Final Wake-Up Call” on Population and Environment, The International Herald Tribune, October 25, 2007).
- The report said 250 percent more fish are being caught than the oceans can produce in a sustainable manner, and that the level of global fish stocks classed as collapsed had roughly doubled to 30% over the past 20 years. 12% of birds are threatened with extinction; for mammals the figure is 23% and for amphibians it is more than 30%. (UN Issues “Final Wake-Up Call” on Population and Environment, The International Herald Tribune, October 25, 2007).
- Annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels have risen by one-third since 1987 and the threat from climate change is now so urgent that only very large cuts in greenhouse gases of 60 to 80 percent of 1990 levels could stop irreversible change. (UN Issues “Final Wake-Up Call” on Population and Environment, The International Herald Tribune, October 25, 2007).
- Crop production has improved over the past 20 years (from 1.8 tons per hectare in the 1980s to 2.5 tons today) but it has not kept up with population. World cereal production per person peaked in the 1980s and has since slowly decreased. With roughly 9 billion people expected to be living on the planet by 2050, feeding them and halfing the number of those already suffering from hunger would require a doubling of food production. Two limiting factors are no enough phosphate for crops and not enough water. (Civilization Ends With a Shutdown of Human Concern. Are We There Already, The Guardian, UK, October 30, 2007)
- If present trends continue, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity by 2025 and 2/3s of the world population could be subject to water stress. (Civilization Ends With a Shutdown of Human Concern. Are We There Already, The Guardian, UK, October 30, 2007)
- The latest IPCC report states that carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere commits the world to rising sea levels. The report predicts that as early as 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, and Asia’s largest cities will be at risk of river and coastal flooding. Europeans can expect extensive species loss, and North Americans will see longer and hotter heat waves and greater competition for water. (No doubt global warming is real, UN panel says, The Associated Press/Newsday.com, November 18, 2007)
- The panel says carbon emissions, mainly from fossil fuels, must stabilize by 2015 and then drop. Even if factories were shut today and cars taken off the roads, the average sea level would reach as high as 4.6 feet above that in the preindustrial period, or about 1850. (No doubt global warming is real, UN panel says, The Associated Press/Newsday.com, November 18, 2007)
- Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57% by 2030 compared to current levels, leading to a rise in Earth’s surface temperature of at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) according to the International Energy Agency in its annual report on global energy needs and based on projected energy use and current efforts to mitigate emissions. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook sees no peak in emissions before 2020, thus stating that the goal of IPCC to see emissions peak by 2015 just won’t happen. To achieve the 450 ppm target would mean that CO2 from energy sources would have to peak by 2012 and this would require a massive drive in energy efficiency and switch to non-fossil fuels, according to the report. (Global Warming Gases Set to Rise by 57% by 2030-IEA, Agence France-Presse, November 7, 2007)
- The final 2007 IPCC Assessment Report synthesized the findings from the past 2007 reports, acknowledged that the situation was even more severe than previously described in the earlier reports because of new data that continued to flow in. Therefore, they upgraded the levels of concern. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- “There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase further; there is medium confidence that approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-25 degrees C over 1980 to 199 levels. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is also now higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heat waves and flood as well as their adverse impacts. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is increasing evidence of greater vulnerability of specific groups such as the poor and elderly in not only developing but also developed countries. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- The initial net market-based benefits from climate change are projected to peak at a lower magnitude of warming, while damages would be higher for larger magnitudes of warming. The net costs of impacts of increasing warming are projected to increase over time. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is high confidence that global warming over many centuries would lead to a several level rise contribution from thermal expansion alone which is projected to be much larger than observed over the 20th century, with loss of coastal areas and associated impacts. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is a better understanding than in previous reports that the risk of additional contributions to sea level rise from both the Greenland and possibly Antarctic ice sheets may be larger than projected by ice sheet models and could occur on a century time scale. This is because ice dynamical processes seen in recent observations but not fully included in ice sheet models assessed in AR4 could increase the rate of ice loss. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts. Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt. Many impacts can be reduced, delayed or avoided by mitigation. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- Mitigation efforts and investments over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels. Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- There is high agreement and much evidence that all stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialized in coming decades, assuming appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion and addressing relative barriers. All assessed stabilization scenarios indicate that 60-80% of the reductions would come from energy supply and use, and industrial processes, with energy efficiency laying a key role in many scenarios. (IPCC Final AR4 Synthesis Report Executive Summary, November, 2007)
- Even though the synthesis report is more alarming than its predecessors, some researchers believe that it still understates the trajectory of global warming and its impact. Because it takes five years of study and writing from start to finish, it cannot take into account the very latest data on climate change or economic trends, for example larger than predicted development and energy use in China. (U.N. Report Describes Risks of Inaction on Climate Change, New York Times, November 17, 2007)
- “The world is already at or above the worst case scenarios in terms of emissions.” For example, in 2006, 8.4 gigatons of carbon were put into the atmosphere from fossil fuels (National Academy of Science study). This is almost identical to the panel’s worst case prediction for that year. In the area of sea level rise the evidence now suggests that the melting of ice sheets could occur over centuries not over millennia, causing a rise of 40 feet in sea level. (U.N. Report Describes Risks of Inaction on Climate Change, New York Times, November 17, 2007)
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